April 24, 2008
Road Map to the Nomination
Two months ago, I wrote an article putting things in perspective about what margins Clinton needed to win by through Pennsylvania to have a decent chance down the road. Here is what that best case scenario was for Clinton:
Hawaii: Best Scenario for Clinton: Lose 14-6, what happened: Lost 14-6
Wisconsin: Best Scenario for Clinton: split 37-37, what happened: Lost 42-32
Super “Two’s Day”: Best Case Scenario for Clinton: win 222-148, What Happened: Won 187-183
Wyoming: Best Scenario for Clinton: Lose 8-4, What Happened: lost 7-5
Mississippi: Best Scenario for Clinton: Lose 19-14, What Happened: Lost 20-13
Pennsylvania: Best Case Scenario for Clinton: Win 95-63, What Happened: Won 86-72
The thing about that “Best Case Scenario,” though, is that it still made her have to win the remaining states by a weighted average of nearly 20%. With the real result, in which she actually received 9 less delegates than Obama in the most favorable portion of her schedule, she needs to win the remaining states by a massive margin to get close enough for the superdelegates to make a difference. In the style of that original roadmap, here’s a prediction of the remaining states:
Guam: I have no clue how guamese people vote, but I’m going to say that Hillary’s best case scenario here is winning 2-1 since it’s a caucus state
North Carolina: Clinton truly needs to win this state, but chances are she’ll lose by about 66-49. Her best case scenario is losing 60-55.
Indiana: Tricky state to predict, it could go either way. My gut says Clinton by 2-3 delegates, and her best case is a 41-31 delegate win.
West Virginia: Probably Clinton by about 18-10 if the race is still going by then. Her best case scenario would be about 20-8.
Oregon and Kentucky: They vote on the same day with almost the exact same number of delegates. Oregon is expected to go big to Obama, while Clinton is favored by 25 points in Kentucky. My guess is it’ll be something like 54-50 for Clinton on the day. Her best case scenario, assuming no massive paradigm shift, is 59-45 on the day.
Puerto Rico: Hard to predict again, since these aren’t American state voters. If they follow the trends of other Latinos they could go for Clinton 65-35, or if they are just swayed by good campaigning and more advertisements, they could go to Barack 55-45. My prediction is 58-52 for Clinton, and her best case scenario is 64-46.
Montana and South Dakota: These seem like the types of states that would go to Obama by landslides, and my prediction, assuming there’s still a race going on by then, is 19-12 for Obama. Clinton’s best case scenario is probably a 17-14 loss.
Alright, so her best case scenarios gives her a defecit of 1671-1562 among pledged delegates when they’re all decided. That would mean that she’d need to get 65% of all uncommitted superdelegates, whereas she’s gotten less than 50% of uncommitted super-delegates since February 5th. I highly doubt 65% of superdelegates who as of now haven’t supported anybody (meaning they don’t necessarily want to be a superdelegate) would be willing to overturn the decision of the people.
So, after a topsy turvy two months, nothing has fundamentally changed, and Clinton needs nothing short of a miracle to clinch the nomination.
