March 5, 2008
Hillary Clinton was the unsurprising winner of March 4th, winning Ohio, Texas’ primary, and Rhode Island. As the chips fall, these results may illustrate more. Here’s an analysis of what we know so far:
Texas Primary – Clinton leads 51% to 47%, resulting in a likely net gain of 3-5 delegates. This is a rather unsurprising result, in a contest I predicted to be 52-47.
Ohio Primary – 55% to 43% in Clinton’s favor is the current tally, my prediction was 54-45. This will likely result in a 16-18 delegate pickup for her. Cleveland results may not be available until 4 AM, so Obama may gain a point or so when that happens.
Rhode Island Primary – Clinton took this state 58-40 in the only contest I didn’t predict well, I thought it would go 52-48. It will likely pick her up a margin of three to four delegates.
Vermont Primary – Obama took this state 60-38, similar to my 58-40 prediction, and it should pick him up a net gain of three delegates.
Texas Caucus – Has just begun reporting. Obama leads early returns 56-43. It’s unlikely that it will stay this way because results change drastically as caucuses go on, but right now he’s on a pace to have a net gain of 8-10 delegates here. One can see the change that is occurring in the caucus results. Ellis County went 54% for Clinton in the primary and 64% for Obama in the caucus. UPDATE: with 13% reporting it’s now 54-46, effectively falling into the complete toss-up category.
Update on Texas Caucus: Obama has maintained a 55-45 lead with 35% reporting. The race hasn’t been called yet because dozens of counties that supported Clinton in the primary have yet to turn in results. It seems unlikely, however, that the small counties that Clinton likely has won in will make any difference when facing the impending results from Houston, where 15% of the state’s voters are, and where Obama is likely to receive over 60% of the caucus vote.
Morning Update: It is now 52-48 in the Texas caucus for Obama with thirty-some-odd percent reporting.
Depending on how the Texas caucus goes, Clinton’s ultimate gain on the night could range from 10 delegates to 30, though the most likely result seems to be about a 20-21 delegate gain still for her, which means she’ll likely have to win Guam, West Virginia, Indiana, Montana, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, and South Dakota by a weighted average of about 30% and Pennsylvania by 15%.
What Clinton has won today, however, is the psychological edge, the media edge, and perhaps the edge among superdelegates. As Ben Smith from Politico put it, the Clintons are great at spinning straw into gold, they just haven’t had any straw lately. With some straw to work with, Clinton can make this look like a race all the way into May.
Another interesting development is that Obama’s campaign supposedly has a large stock of secret superdelegates who are planning to announce, while the Clinton campaign has been trying to hush them, according to Mike Allen and Ben Smith of politico. Both campaigns deny such allegations publicly.
Tune in for updates
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