May 6th, 2008
Obama wins NC, Clinton wins Indiana
While we’ve seen a variety of results thus far in this nomination process, one thing we have not seen is Demographic blocs breaking. Perhaps the most surprising outcome of the primaries in the two largest remaining states is that some of these blocs are beginning to be less steadfast.
First of all, there seems to have been a distinct lack of gender-based voting in these two states. In Pennsylvania, there was a 20 point gap between how men and women voted, with Obama winning men by 2 points and Clinton winning women by 18 points. In Indiana and North Carolina, however, men and women voted virtually evenly, with a gender gap of only 4 points (meaning that each candidate did 2% better among their own gender than the gender of their opponent). In North Carolina, this result is not especially surprising, as Obama does equally well among black women as he does among black men, thus lowering the gender gap number in a largely black state. In Indiana, however, the result is tough to explain.
Equally baffling, is that income didn’t appear to affect voting much either. Typically, Obama has done better among upper income earners, while Clinton has done better among lower income earners, today that was not the case. In North Carolina, Obama performed the same (55%) among those with and without college degrees, actually doing better among voters who earned less than 50,000 dollars a year (59%) than he did among those who owned more (52%). This is likely because of support from poor blacks, rather than a sudden upturn in blue collar whites. In Indiana, there was even less evidence of income being a prime determiner of voting, with Obama finishing with the same amount of support (48%) among those who made more than $50,000 a year and less than $50,000 a year, as well as those who made more than $100,000 a year and less than $100,000 a year.
Once the final tallies are more clear I’ll post what the results mean for the rest of the primaries, but my hunch is that the result tonight, which looks to be about a 5-6 point win for Obama in NC and a 10 point win for Clinton in Indiana, maintains the status quo, with a slight edge to Clinton. I think the minor differences in percentages will make a huge difference in perspective; if Clinton wins Indiana by double digits and Obama wins North Carolina by less than 6 points, it would look aesthetically like a big win for her, despite being a modest delegate pickup.
