March 6, 2008
Betting The Farm On a Square Foot Of Land
In a strange move by a party that is hoping to get some semblance of a moral victory before a certainly disappointing congressional election, the Republicans have invested 1.2 million dollars, one fifth of their cash, on the congressional race to replace Dennis Hassert (R-IL) in the special election being held due to his retirement. The winner of the race gets to be a representative for about seven and a half months, before the candidates, Republican James Oberweis and Democrat BIll Foster, run against each other a second time in November. The Democrats have spent 620,000 dollars on the race. The candidates, both businessmen, have both largely self-financed their own camapaigns as well, and the battle for a simple house seat appears to be an arms race that the Republicans are using as a barometer to see what chances they have in November. If they can’t win in a district that former speaker Dennis Hassert won eleven times in a row, routinely with 60-70% of the vote, they probably are going to have a tough time not getting swept in the house again.
In other news, Republican Committee treasurer Chistopher Ward is under criminal investigation after hundreds of thousands of dollars disappeared from the committee unexplained. Ward allegedly filed many false audits and kept all the money for himself. Ward, who also worked for “Swift Boat Veterans For Truth,” is suspected to have stolen from the political action committies of multiple other representatives for whom he worked.
The House of Representatives has finally passed a bill that would force insurance comapnies to give equal health care treatment for mental illnesses, including caffeine intoxication and jet lag. The white house, who supported the bill in 2002, opposes it now. It passed the house 268-148. What do you think the odds are that it gets killed procedurally in senate? If it doesn’t, it’ll probably be vetoed.
On to the presidential election, where results from the Texas caucus are still coming in at a snail’s pace. The election director in Texas says that Obama won the state by 5 delegates between the primary and caucus. This means that the final pledged delegate tally on the day was probably 188-182 for Clinton. Since Obama gained eleven superdelegates that day, while Clinton gained two, the total delegate tally was 193-190 in Obama’s favor on the day, continuing his streak of getting more delegates than Clinton every single day that there have been contests. The most interesting trend is that, while originally Obama’s superdelegate support all came from elected officials, he has now received support from a large number of DNC officials as well, which was an area Clinton figured to nearly sweep. He has gotten 17 superdelegate’s to Clinton’s 1 since February 29th. The superdelegate breakdown, according to the invaluable Democratic Convention Watch, is 96-95 for Obama among elected officials, while Clinton leads 146-106 among unelected officials.
Clinton’s path from here is clear. She needs to win Pennsylvania BIG, probably by 20%, and win a string of states at the end by convincing margins, probably including North Carolina. This will not give her a lead, in fact it’s close to an impossibility for her to win the pledged delegate race. If she wins enough contests in a row at the end, including the remaining big states, and maybe even a caucus state, she can make a case to the superdelegates that they should go against the will of the people and make a case to the DNC to re-do Michigan and Florida contests. With Michigan and Florida re-runs and a big run of wins, Clinton will hope that she can erase Obama’s popular vote lead, taking away his claim to the nomination based on the “peoples’ mandate.” Unfortunately, all these things are easier said than done.
The Republican legislature in Florida would not be willing to re-host a primary in Florida, and Clinton needs a primary there to win. Afterall, in Texas, where she won the primary by 4%, she lost the caucus by double digits because of Obama’s organizational advantage. Michigan is even more of a mess, as nobody but Clinton was on the ballot the first time around since Michigan, like Florida, broke Democratic party rules and moved their contests forward. Unlike Florida, Michigan doesn’t have any dispensable money for a new primary and, since Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm is not only a Clinton supporter but a Clinton clone, they’re a lot less likely to be listened to when holding re-elections or asking for their results to count. Both states would like do-overs, but it seems like the only way that can happen is caucuses, which would take away the possibility of a popular vote pickup by Clinton.
Hillary Clinton, by virtue of her Tuesday win, did the bare minimum to stay in the race, but she’s going to have to do the bare minimum from here on out. She was supposed to win Super Tuesday by a landslide, she lost it by 14 delegates. She was supposed to win March 4th by a landslide, she won it by only 6 delegates. She will need to have a better streak from here to June than Obama had from February 6th to March Third, she will need to convince the superdelegates to overrule electablity and the people, she will need to get Florida and Michigan to hold new primaries, she will need to win the popular vote, and she needs a lot of luck.
Fundraising The Bar
Barack Obama’s campaign finally announced their February fundraising numbers. They announce that they took in 55 million dollars in the month of February, shattering the record of 44 million and dwarfing Clinton’s 35 million. Obama has now outraised Clinton by 43 million dollars in 2008, 91 million to 48 million. In any other race, 48 million would be a great two month haul, but not this year.
What’s Happened Already:
John McCain is the Republican nominee, while Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by about 115 delegates. Obama has taken 29 contests to Clinton’s 15, with two ties, and leads by about 600,000 votes.
What’s Happening Soon?
Wyoming Holds caucuses on Saturday, and Mississippi holds its primary on Tuesday. Wyoming, being a homogenously white caucus state, is the type of state Obama typically wins, while Mississippi, with a 56% black primary electorate in 2004, should go to Obama about 65-35 at least, probably more like 70% to 30%.
What’s Being Spun?
Hillary Clinton coming back from the grave for the third time. This is amusing since she did worse than expected in Ohio, Texas, and Super Tuesday (the last time she supposedly came back from the dead). Also, for the second week in a row, according to the project for excellence in journalism the Democrats monopolized media coverage, with 80% of campaign stories being about the Democrats and Barack Obama being prominent in 70% of all stories related to the election and more than 1 out of every four stories reported in the entire media. And that’s the Muse.
