Let’s face it: California is blue. The day that California slips from the grasp of the Democratic Party is the day that the party fails forever. While it feels nice to display the latest Obama gear on your front lawn, in your window or around town, we all know we’re preaching to the choir. We’re in the San Francisco Bay Area, one of the, if not the most, progressive areas in the country.
What it really comes down to for the 2008 Presidential election are the swing states. The electoral votes that these battleground states provide will be the decisive factor in November. The New York Times has compiled a list of the fifty U.S. states and their projected victor as of October 3:
In the democratic camp, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, D.C., New Jersey, Maryland, Hawaii and most of the New England states are solid territory for Obama and his team. Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are “Obama leaning,” meaning that they are most likely to be won by the Democrats. Of these states, California, New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois would be Obama’s most prized possessions, raking in a whopping 128 electoral votes when combined.
For the GOP, Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Tennessee and several other western, mid-western, and southern states are strongholds for McCain. Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana are “McCain leaning.” Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, and Indiana are valuable to the Republicans, with each state bringing in at least 11 electoral votes.
However, there are several key battleground or “swing” states that are heavily coveted by both camps. These include Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Florida. Offering 78 electoral votes when combined, these states bear witness to endless campaigning from both parties. With a required 270 electoral votes to win, these swing states are essential to either candidates success.
The candidate who receives a majority vote in a state takes all of the state’s electoral votes (except in Maine and Nebraska). That’s why strong campaigning is essential in a swing state like Ohio while in Texas, a securely Republican state, campaigning is much less critical. Since California is solidly Democratic, Obama supporters are campaigning in Nevada, where each vote could determine our future president.
While uniting and rallying around McCain in Oklahoma or Obama in Connecticut might seem fun or popular, we must focus our attention on precious, undecided votes in these swing states. Whether you’re an Obama or McCain supporter, the swing state voters must not be neglected. They will decide our next president.
This article would have been accurate in its state lists two months ago, but those swing state lists are somewhat off. Obama is leading in most of the recent polls in Missouri (4 of the last five polls have Obama in the lead) and North Carolina (6 of the last 9 polls), so I’m not sure how those states are McCain leaning, they’re tossups at least, if not leaning towards Obama. On top of that, Obama leads in your six swing-states, Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Florida, by a trend-adjusted average of 7.2 points. Those are not tossup-states, they are tipping-point states. Ohio and Florida are still the most likely states to tip the election, given the number of electoral votes in the states and their relationship to the national numbers, but they are still currently not tossups.
The information in my article was accurate as of October 3. This is based off of New York Times polling data, which is updated daily. Only recently has Obama gained signficant numbers over McCain. My article was posted a week and a half after I wrote it: That’s like a year in politics. Your information is probably reflects the most recent changes.