May 12, 2008
About That 1 Point Win in Indiana…
The Jed Report beat me to the punch in its analysis of Republican meddling in Indiana here, showing that Obama was likely the victor in Indiana among voters who don’t plan to vote for McCain regardless. Adding to my numbers estimating that effect in Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Ohio, and Texas, Clinton has now gotten a net margin of 323,000 votes and 26 delegates from Limbaugh voters. Without these “operation chaos” voters, Clinton would have dropped out of the race long ago, and if she hadn’t she’d be trailing by over 1.1 million votes right now. It doesn’t look like it will matter, but it’s worth noting that one of the only reasons she’s still in the race is because Republicans think she’d be an easier candidate to beat.
People Are Still Voting?
Not that it really matters to anybody but Hillary Clinton, but she’s likely to win 70-30 in West Virginia tomorrow, as it is the state with the most uneducated whites of anywhere in the country, and that’s what her base consists of. She might roll out her last important superdelegate endorsements to try to manufacture some momentum. The following week, West Virginia’s sister state, Kentucky, votes along with Oregon, with the former guaranteed to go to Clinton and the latter virtually guaranteed to go to Obama.
Steady Superdelegate Trickle Continues
Obama received 4 new superdelegate endorsements (to Clinton’s zero) on monday, and the tally is now 286 to 269.5, with Obama in the lead. The goalposts keep moving, and Clinton now must get 71% of all remaining delegates to win the nomination. Since North Carolina and Indiana voted, Obama has received 23 new superdelegate endorsements, while Clinton has received a net of 1.
Media Consensus Begins To Form About Obama VP
A frontrunner has finally emerged for the role of Vice President, and his name is Jim Webb. A current senator in Virginia, Webb was Ronald Reagan’s secretary of the navy and is a former Republican. Webb would help enforce Obama’s foreign policy credentials and post-partisan credentials. He also is an effective attack dog (since Obama is a bit meek on that front), and would help deliver a key swing region (Virginia and North Carolina). Furthermore, he matches McCain’s military credentials. Given the 95% of the black vote Obama is likely to receive, if he can get 40% of the southern white vote, he can win several southern states, which is why a southerner is so appealing. It forces McCain to pick a southern conservative running mate, which will take the eastern seaboard and the mountain states out of play for McCain. If McCain picks Joe Lieberman, which it seems is becoming more and more likely, an Obama-Webb ticket could win Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, all of which are traditionally Republican states.
And that’s the Muse.
