April 21, 2008
Finally something that matters to talk about
Not Wearing Flag Pins (Clinton, Obama, McCain), Lying about Bosnia (Clinton), association with Reverend Wright (Obama and Clinton), Association with Weather Underground (Obama and Clinton), and “Bitter-gate” (Obama). These meaningless stories have been filling the airwaves ever since Mississippi voted and we became condemned to over a month of no real political news, during which polling stayed virtually identical. Now we finally have a primary to talk about, and it’s a big one: Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is a state that’s part of Clinton’s “big-state bank shot” strategy (Along with Texas and Ohio) that show hopes to keep her in the race. It is a state tailor-made for Clinton, with conservative, old, rural, “bitter,” and white voters comprising a large-state primary. If the contest were held on February 6th, Clinton could expect to win it by 25 points, and three weeks ago she could have expected to win it by 15. Now her average margin of victory in polling is about 6 points. The Muse will run down some questions you might have about the implications of the primary.
What Constitutes a “Win” For Clinton?
If Clinton wins by more than five points, her campaign will claim it’s a big win because it continues to prove Obama “can’t win big states,” and that “the Democratic nominee needs to win Pennsylvania.” If she wins by less than that, she may say “it’s impressive that I won because I’ve been outspent three to one in this state.” That being said, the way I see it is that the state counts as a win if she increases her chances of winning the nomination, which would take about a 12-13 point victory. A 12-13 point victory would, coincidentally, be enough to give her a small lead in the popular vote (if you count Michigan and Florida’s contests, which the Clinton campaign is intent on doing). Though few would take it seriously, she would be able to say she had received the most votes and be able to defend the statement (albeit with twisted reasoning). If that happened, I’m sure a few superdelegates would switch to her side.
Will Clinton Become The Frontrunner Again if She Wins?
No. The reality is that at the end of the day, when the dust settles, Clinton will still be down by likely at least 120 delegates and 600,000 popular votes in the vote count that most stations report. Unless she wins Pennsylvania by over 20 points, you could argue she’ll actually be in worse shape after the fact because she’ll need to win even bigger margins in the states after that. A big win will keep her in the race, but she’ll still be in the range of having about a 10% chance of winning the nod.
Can Obama Win Pennsylvania’s Primary?
It’s pretty unlikely. He’s likely going to lose by about 7-9 points, but it is possible. The PPP poll that recently came out had him winning by 3 points, and that poll had the biggest sample size of any poll in the state, with 2700 likely voters. The intrade markets peg him at about a ten percent chance of winning the state against Clinton.
Does The State’s Result Have Any Connection to How Strong a Candidate Will Be General Election?
Doubtful. It’s a closed primary, which means only Democrats can vote in it. What may be more indicative of how well either candidate, Obama or Clinton, will do in the general election is turnout. If more than 2.5 million people vote, and a high percentage of them are young people and African Americans, the Democratic candidate had a good chance of winning in November. In 2004, John Kerry lost voters 30-45, 45-60, and 60+, only winning because of his enormous mandate from young people, who made up 21% of the electorate. If we see a turnout that mirrors Ohio, with disproportionately old and white voters showing up, it’s bad for the Dems’ chances in November, as Pennsylvanians who aren’t young and/or black will likely go about 55% for McCain.
Is There Any Chance Clinton Drops Out if She Wins?
It’s unlikely, just because her entire campaign’s line of reasoning would be shot if she dropped out of the race with, according to her campaign’s line of reasoning, the most votes and the most chance of winning. It would make her remaining supporters mostly abandon her because it would appear she was letting go of all of her convictions. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if both money and reality contribute to her running a more Mike Huckabee-like campaign.
What’s Left After Pennsylvania?
Indiana, North Carolina, and Oregon are the main remaining prizes left, with Puerto Rico, Kentucky, Montana, South Dakota, and Guam rounding out the states left to vote. Past that, there’s still 305 undecided superdelegates who will be presumably announcing their choices more and more rapidly, though I’m guessing a bloc of 150 or so will announce en masse once the process is over in favor of the candidate with the most delegates.
